Saturday, July 8, 2017

Goods and Services Tax in India: Some Basic Issues


Goods and Services Tax (GST) is a multi-stage indirect tax levied on local consumption. It involves collection by registered vendors throughout the production and distribution chain before the goods or services reach end-consumers. Under the GST framework, each registered vendor charges GST on his sales in the form of output tax, and reclaims credits for the tax paid on his purchases as input tax. The input tax credit method allows GST-registered businesses to claim tax credit to the value of GST they paid on purchase of goods or services as part of their normal commercial activity. It is similar to value added tax because at every stage, tax is being paid on the value addition. Taxable goods and services are not distinguished from one another and are taxed at a single rate in a supply chain till the goods or services reach the consumer. The total amount of GST paid to the tax authority by all the vendors in the production and distribution chain is equal to the amount of tax finally borne by the consumer. 

The GST is a system of indirect taxation introduced from July 1, 2017, in India merging most of the existing taxes into single system of taxation. It was proposed first by the finance minister in the budget speech in 2007 and introduced by The Constitution (One Hundred and First Amendment) Act 2016. The Constitution Amendment Bill, 2014, (GST Bill), by considering the present federal structure, proposed dual GST model in which both the central and the state governments have power to collect tax in the following manner: The Central GST (CGST) and Integrated GST (IGST) are the domain of the central government, while the State GST (SGST) is to be collected by state governments. The CGST and SGST are applicable in the case of intrastate trade of commerce, but in interstate trade the IGST is applicable. The transaction may be liable to be taxed under GST if the total turnover (of all transactions all over India) exceeds the threshold limit.

RELATED: Little India struggles with tax revolution
The current indirect tax system, particularly the retail sales tax, covers normally goods but not services. Services sector, however, is faster growing part of the economy. The GST covers services as equally as goods extending the tax base of the country. The GST, a comprehensive consumption tax levied on the supply of all goods and services, can eliminate the multiplicity of taxes, the complexity in compliance obligations, and tax cascading. It is one point single taxation based on the principle of one tax one market across the regions in India. The GST eliminates the cascading effects of CENVAT and it is not simply a VAT plus service tax but an improvement over the previous system of VAT and disjointed service tax.
The GST, a multi-stage indirect tax levied on local consumption, as proposed by the union government in India has been a subject of intense debate and is reignited because of the heterogeneity of state laws on the present VAT (value added tax) system. There has been a lot of heterogeneity not only in VAT rates but also in the mode of compliance with different set of laws in different states. One of the major objectives of the proposed GST is to eliminate this heterogeneity across the states. Moreover, a number of positive impacts of GST have been claimed officially from the experience of the GST system already prevailing in more than 150 countries in the globe. While the most of the GST systems across the world have been using a single GST, a dual-GST model is proposed in India for its federal republic structure. Lot of debates have come up on GST in India particularly in the context of the state economies under the present federal structure.

As the GST is destination-based, there would be an outflow of tax revenue under this tax system along with goods and services produced in states with manufacturing industries to states that consume the goods and services. In this sense, GST may not be attractive particularly for manufacturing states. The central government has assured states of compensation for any revenue losses incurred by them from the date of introduction of GST for a period of five years.
Taxation on the consumption of goods and services is nothing more than an expenditure tax, very much similar to income tax. For GST, the tax base is expenditure, not income, and everyone who consumes goods and services cannot avoid this tax, as it is built into the price. As the lower income people have higher propensity to consume than the higher income people, the tax burden for the lower income people will be higher than for the higher income group. At least on equity ground GST should be linked to direct taxes. Tax reforms should be aimed at augmenting revenue to assure alleviation of poverty and creating a more equitable society.
Daily changes, 10-year and 25-year averages of the main stock market indices like IBOVESPA, BSE Sensex, RTSi, Dow Jones and 40 more can be followed on www.glarius.com





Mr. Panchanan Das
Professor of Economics,
University of Kolkata
Kolkata, West Bengal, India

Tuesday, March 14, 2017

Demonetization in India: Impact on the Economy


On November 8, 2016, the government of India took away the legal tender character of 500 and 1000
Rupee denomination of banknotes. As a result, 86 percent of the currency (nearly 11 percent of GDP) in circulation was reduced suddenly from the economy. The shortage of currency created a shock to the economy which has several implications. Of course, the capacity to spend by the people had affected directly reducing the consumption demand in the domestic economy. The unorganised sector operates substantially outside the formal banking channels and uses cash for its transactions. The unorganised sector affected badly sinking their production. This affects demand in the entire economy since. As this sector still produces 45 percent of the national output, it has significant contractionary effect in the economy.The rate of growth of the economy as a whole would come down.



Demonetization reduces the cash in the economy. But, cash in the Indian economy represents only less than one fourth of total money supply. While the Reserve Bank of India supplies the cash circulating in the economy, the banking system as a whole creates more money by lending the deposits it gets to others. While the amount of currency in circulation sharply declines, the deposits with the banks increases although slowly. The money multiplier, the ratio of money in the economy to the cash that the central bank releases in the economy, rises as the people uses less and less of cash and more and more of the deposits with the banks. Cash held by the people is a leakage from the banking system and not available to be further circulated.
New Delhi: People queue up at out side of banks ATM to get money in New Delhi on Sunday. PTI photo by Vijay Verma


It is argued that there are agents in the economy who are hoarding currency as a method for storing savings, especially by people earning unaccounted or illegal incomes. Demonetization has been introduced for reining in the unaccounted incomes or wealth in the economy. It is being argued that the part of wealth held by people as cash would be extinguished as a result of demonetization. There is artificial suppression of demand because of the cash crunch. After remonetisation with the new series of bank notes, consumption demand has started to rise, and if the items are in short supply because of the contraction in economic activity or because of supply chain management, inflation may go up.
Follow economic performance of over 40 countries on www.glarius.com Main stock market indices, inflation, real estate prices, prognoses.


Mr. Panchanan Das
Professor of Economics,
University of Kolkata
Kolkata, West Bengal, India

Monday, December 19, 2016

Low Degree of Macro-Economic Volatility - BRICS Nations


In a study we observe that the positive growth effect on the real sector is reaped out from the financial integration in terms of integration of the financial markets (stock markets) among the BRICS nations. The fundamentals of the economies in the sample are attracting the foreign investment from among the nations in sample. Financial integration allows the capital to be invested in the market which is to give the highest return by reducing the barriers, hence the investors have the incentive to invest and consequently the entrepreneurs also gets the incentive in investing technological innovation. The ever expanding cross country capital flow in equity market is improving the production structure of the economies and influencing the growth of the real sector positively. Factors that fosters the investing in BRICS nations is the low degree of macro-economic volatility relative to the rest of the world. The growth rate of Brazil, China, South Africa and India is quiet high relative to the global market growth rate, especially aftermath of the crisis of 2008.
www.glarius.com – has 25 years of market data with analysis, prognosis.
The global financial market has become very synthetic in terms of volatility. The member nations of BRICS nation have much more transparency of information and less asymmetry of information about the economy fundamentals and with regard to projects they are investing, since the financial intermediaries have easy access to all kind of information regarding the projects and economy fundamentals. So to reduce the uncertainties of investment the investors of BRICS nation are opting for cross-country investment within and between the BRICS nation. The positive impact of economic growth is found from the analysis, implies that the fundamental endowment of the BRICS nations are almost equal therefore, consequently the growth is taking place in terms of equalization of factor prices.
Daily changes, 10-year and 25-year averages of the main stock market indices like JSE/FTSE, IBOVESPA, BSE Sensex, RTSi can be followed on www.glarius.com

Mr. Panchanan Das
Professor of Economics, University of Kolkata
Kolkata, West Bengal, India

Wednesday, November 16, 2016

Financial Integration and Real Sector Growth in BRICS Nations


by Panchanan Das
 
India - The 1980s and 1990s were characterized by substantial institutional change in financial markets that significantly increased global financial integration. These changes resulted in the emergence of new issues that were not present so far. As a result, we have seen a noticeable increase in the size and variety of studies dealing with these issues. This article is restricted to look into some interrelated issues on financial integration among the BRICS nations. BRICS is an association of five major emerging economies: Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. These five countries together contributed roughly 1/5 of the GDP to the world economy with nearly 40% of the world population in 2015. Initially it was BRIC but later South Africa joined the family to be newly termed as BRICS. The immediate aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis didn’t had much effect on their economies as the emerging powers continued to grow.
Related: What is the state of the BRICS economies?
Image: REUTERS/BRICS Photohost/RIA Novosti

The BRICS countries have little in common in political terms and the degree of openness with regards to the level of globalization and liberalization. The unique and unifying factor is the scale of their economies in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) and their sustained growth rates in the past two decades. The shift from intensive technique to extensive technique way of extracting materials lead to a paradigm shift in development. Although there exists a huge number of studies that concentrate on measuring the level of financial integration and focusing on the issues related to it, there are relatively small number of studies that concentrated on these nations. However, the changing power structure of global economy calls for more attention to the emerging giants. The BRICS is a renewed global partnership for development. The BRICS member countries have converged to work on some common goal and priorities. Being the fastest growing and the largest emerging giants, the BRICS nations account more than half of the global population and contribute majorly in the world GDP growth. Daily changes, 10-year and 25-year averages of the main stock market indices like IBOVESPA, BSE Sensex, RTSi can be followed on www.glarius.com
Related: BRICS Face Their Own Challenges While Meeting As A Bloc



Mr. Panchanan Das is an Economics Professor at University of Kolkata Kolkata, West Bengal, India

Monday, October 17, 2016

Divergence Between Stock Market Performance and Real Economy Trends


by Panchanan Das
 
India - Many economists believe that significant decrease in stock prices could be source of future recession, whereas large increase in stock prices may reflect the expectation towards future economic growth. However, there were controversy issues to doubt the stock market’s predictive ability such as the 1987 stock market crashed followed by world recession and the 1997 Asian financial crisis. Daily BSE Sensex movements can be followed live on Glarius Investments Intelligence Platform. www.glarius.com

While the Sensex, as of any other stock or share price index, is conventionally treated as an indicator of economic performance of an economy, it can only be the gross indicator of an economy like India both statistically as well as conceptually. This is because the movement in share prices is guided by the expectations about the future performance of companies listed on the stock exchange. Here we enter in the field of Markets Intelligence. Movements in share prices may indicate economic health, but it could not predict properly the performance of the real sector. Glarius (www.glarius.com) has tools to monitor performances of Indices worldwide. Performance, yields of the last 25 years. Also, we have a tool to predict future movements in Indices. GLARIUS PROGNOSIS TOOL. 

There is a divergence between stock market performance and real economy trends. The stock markets seem reasonably function well even if the real sector not performing so well. This is because the Sensex is a stock market index representing the movement in the share price of major companies listed in the Mumbai Stock Exchange.



Mr. Panchanan Das is an Economics Professor at University of Kolkata Kolkata, West Bengal, India

Saturday, July 2, 2016

Does the movements in the BSE Sensex Index Reflect the State of the Indian Economy?

BSE Sensex building     Source: financialexpress.com

The movement in BSE Sensex (Mumbai, India) largely depends on major macroeconomic parameters like GDP growth, inflation, fiscal deficit, foreign exchange stability, industrial output etc. affecting the expectations of future performances of the companies. Let’s say RBI (Royal Bank of India) increases interest rates because of rising inflation. This increases the borrowing cost of companies which is expected to add to their cost of production and bring down their profits. This will bring down share prices of most of the companies in the market.
Related: Sensex rallies 145 points, best weekly jump since May

Mumbai business district  Source: mumbaithemegacity.weebly.com
The Sensex is also affected by the macroeconomic indicators of the global economy. The debt crisis in the Eurozone, for example affected the Sensex after the integration of the domestic financial market to the global market. Recently, the sensitive index decreased 604 points to 26398 on June 24th because of the Brexit effect. Stock prices and the BSE Sensex index can be regarded as a good mirror of the Indian economy. However, it must not be forgotten that Stock Markets in general are subject to a deal of emotions, opportunism and hustlers looking for an overnight profit. For serious, long-term investments it is important to look at the results and opportunities over a long period of time.

Daily BSE Sensex movements but also long-term results, average return on investments can be followed live on Glarius Investments Intelligence Platform. Glarius has developed models, graphs and tools to monitor performances of stock market indices worldwide. Also, we have developed an econometric model to predict future movements in indices such as BSE Sensex. www.glarius.com
Related: Modi's magic: Is India's economic miracle a mirage?



Mr. Panchanan Das
Associate Professor at the Department of Economics, University of Calcutta
Kolkata, West Bengal, India