Saturday, July 2, 2016

Does the movements in the BSE Sensex Index Reflect the State of the Indian Economy?

BSE Sensex building     Source: financialexpress.com

The movement in BSE Sensex (Mumbai, India) largely depends on major macroeconomic parameters like GDP growth, inflation, fiscal deficit, foreign exchange stability, industrial output etc. affecting the expectations of future performances of the companies. Let’s say RBI (Royal Bank of India) increases interest rates because of rising inflation. This increases the borrowing cost of companies which is expected to add to their cost of production and bring down their profits. This will bring down share prices of most of the companies in the market.
Related: Sensex rallies 145 points, best weekly jump since May

Mumbai business district  Source: mumbaithemegacity.weebly.com
The Sensex is also affected by the macroeconomic indicators of the global economy. The debt crisis in the Eurozone, for example affected the Sensex after the integration of the domestic financial market to the global market. Recently, the sensitive index decreased 604 points to 26398 on June 24th because of the Brexit effect. Stock prices and the BSE Sensex index can be regarded as a good mirror of the Indian economy. However, it must not be forgotten that Stock Markets in general are subject to a deal of emotions, opportunism and hustlers looking for an overnight profit. For serious, long-term investments it is important to look at the results and opportunities over a long period of time.

Daily BSE Sensex movements but also long-term results, average return on investments can be followed live on Glarius Investments Intelligence Platform. Glarius has developed models, graphs and tools to monitor performances of stock market indices worldwide. Also, we have developed an econometric model to predict future movements in indices such as BSE Sensex. www.glarius.com
Related: Modi's magic: Is India's economic miracle a mirage?



Mr. Panchanan Das
Associate Professor at the Department of Economics, University of Calcutta
Kolkata, West Bengal, India